As with every autumn, the literary scene is abuzz with speculation about who will win the Nobel Prize in Literature. The Swedish Academy doesn't publish an official list of candidates , and its deliberations remain secret, so almost everything circulating these days is pure speculation. Even so, the date has been set: the winner will be announced on October 8th at 13:00 PM Spanish Peninsular Time , which is 08:00 AM in Chile. Expectations are running high because the most prestigious award in world literature is once again putting the predictions to the test.
In Spain and Europe, attention is divided between the usual names and the possibility that the prize might once again speak to a Spanish-language author. Since Mario Vargas Llosa in 2010, no Spanish-language author has received it , and since Camilo José Cela in 1989, no writer born in Spain has won it. Therefore, when candidates like Enrique Vila-Matas or Cristina Rivera Garza are mentioned , the interest isn't solely literary: there's also a certain sense of historical debt. Bookmakers, booksellers, and critics are circulating disparate lists, none of which can confirm anything.
A football pool without an official list
The Nobel Prize in Literature is probably the most unpredictable major award in the world. Its juries don't necessarily follow the majority opinion , and the minutes remain sealed for decades, so any prediction is inherently flawed. Furthermore, the Academy doesn't confirm who is in the running, leaving the media and bookmakers to speculate on names that surface year after year. To better understand the process, there are several interesting facts and requirements for winning a Nobel Prize in Literature.
In this game, bookmakers offer very different predictions. Ladbrokes places Can Xue and Haruki Murakami at the top , while Coinbase and Kalshi have Indian author Amitav Ghosh as the favorite, followed by Anne Carson, César Aira, and Margaret Atwood. Other platforms like Oddspedia and OLBG emphasize Can Xue, Murakami, Thomas Pynchon, Gerald Murnane, Cristina Rivera Garza, Enrique Vila-Matas, Mircea Cărtărescu, and Michel Houellebecq. The conclusion is clear: there is no single candidate or an undisputed favorite.
There's also talk of a possible change in gender. Since 2018, the prize has alternated between women and men: Olga Tokarczuk, Peter Handke, Louise Glück, Abdulrazak Gurnah, Annie Ernaux, Jon Fosse, Han Kang, and László Krasznahorkai . This unwritten rule fuels the idea that this year it could go to a female writer, although it's neither an official rule nor a guarantee. The Academy has denied any predetermined order on other occasions.
The names that are being mentioned most
Among the most frequently mentioned names, Can Xue almost always appears on the lists. The self-taught Chinese author has built an avant-garde body of work marked by her childhood in a labor camp during Mao's purges. Titles such as Underworld, The Other Side, and Red Leaves have made her a recurring contender. In 2024, she was considered a shoo-in, but Han Kang ultimately won; in 2025, her name resurfaced, though less frequently; and in 2026, she returns to the group of favorites.
Haruki Murakami is the perennial candidate. His international popularity is enormous , with books like Norwegian Wood, Sputnik Sweetheart, Kafka on the Shore, and 1Q84, but he has never won the Nobel Prize. This mix of fame and resistance to the academy keeps him in the running. Alongside him, Anne Carson has become one of the strongest contenders among critics and booksellers, especially for works like The Beauty of the Husband and Eros, Bitter and Sweet.
Other names complete the picture. Thomas Pynchon represents the most complex and experimental American novel, with works like Gravity's Rainbow and V. Mircea Cărtărescu is once again a strong contender for his dreamlike and mystical narratives, with titles such as Solenoid, Theodoros, and Melancholia. Margaret Atwood, César Aira, Salman Rushdie, John Banville, Gay Talese, and Samanta Schweblin also appear in various predictions, though with varying probabilities. In Europe, the Romanian Cărtărescu and the Spaniard Vila-Matas are two of the most frequently mentioned names.
The Spanish factor
The Spanish language boasts ten Nobel laureates in Literature: José Echegaray, Jacinto Benavente, Gabriela Mistral, Juan Ramón Jiménez, Miguel Ángel Asturias, Pablo Neruda, Gabriel García Márquez, Camilo José Cela, Octavio Paz, and Mario Vargas Llosa . The most recent recipient was the Peruvian writer in 2010, for his exploration of the structures of power. Since then, every October the question arises: when will Stockholm award the prize to a Spanish-language author again? In Spain, the wait is even longer, as Cela remains the last Spanish-born author to receive the award.
Enrique Vila-Matas is one of the names that best embodies that expectation. He has appeared on the lists for years and has decided to take the matter with irony. He recalls that at a dinner in Stockholm he even thought he had already won, that he once received a call from a Swedish agency, and that a woman on the jury gave him a warning look after a joke about the secrecy. "You don't have to win it. You can think you've won, and that's it," he has said. His work, with Bartleby & Co. and Canon of the Camera Obscura, has gone from cult classic to canonical without losing its unclassifiable nature.
Cristina Rivera Garza comes from a different place. The Mexican author won the 2024 Pulitzer Prize for *The Invincible Summer of Liliana* , a reconstruction of her sister's femicide, and has developed a concept of writing as listening and dispossession. Her books work with archives, testimonies, and other people's voices to intervene in collective memory. Her nomination reinforces the presence of Spanish and connects with a tradition that understands literature not as an ivory tower, but as an active part of the world.
Other Latin American authors are also making waves. César Aira is a perennial favorite among some critics, with over a hundred short novels and a formal freedom he himself has described as thoughtful improvisation. Samanta Schweblin has burst onto the scene with a disquieting exploration of family, motherhood, and technology. And Galician bookstores are featuring names like Manuel Rivas, Chus Pato, Lídia Jorge, and Chantal Maillard, in addition to classics such as Joyce Carol Oates and Margaret Atwood.
Recent award winners and award history
The 2025 winner was Hungarian László Krasznahorkai , author of *Tango Satanico*, a name that was already on many prediction lists, though not always as the favorite. Before him came Han Kang in 2024 and Jon Fosse in 2023, two choices that surprised a good portion of the public. The Academy tends to alternate between well-known names and less expected choices , which explains why the preliminary lists are so easily wrong each year.
Recent history also includes Bob Dylan, who in 2016 became the first musician to receive the Nobel Prize in Literature for having created new poetic expressions within the American song tradition. His case demonstrated that the prize can look beyond the conventional novel and poetry. Previously, in 1998, it had been won by José Saramago, who championed memory as an essential part of identity: "We are the memory we have; without memory, we wouldn't know who we are." Vargas Llosa, in 2010, remains the most recent Nobel laureate in Spanish.
What booksellers and specialists say
In Galicia, several bookstores have created their own predictions. Anne Carson is the top choice for Moito Conto, Versus, Follas Novas, and Librería Bandini , who highlight her ability to blend poetry, essays, translations, and classical literature. They also mention Ali Smith, Can Xue, César Aira, Cristina Rivera Garza, Enrique Vila-Matas, Mircea Cărtărescu, Gueorgui Gospodínov, Chus Pato, Joyce Carol Oates, Margaret Atwood, Gerald Murnane, Maggie O'Farrell, Emmanuel Carrère, Chantal Maillard, and Lídia Jorge. The list is so extensive that it confirms the lack of consensus.
In Chile, journalist Viviana Encina is backing Anne Carson, Diamela Eltit, Can Xue, and Cristina Rivera Garza, noting that Spanish-language literature hasn't received the Nobel Prize since Vargas Llosa. Lenka Carvallo favors Rivera Garza and Mircea Cărtărescu. Gerardo Jara, from the La Inquieta bookstore, adds names like César Aira, Nona Fernández, Eduardo Halfon, Chantal Maillard, Kim Thuy, Pascal Quignard, Mary Ruefle, and the Syrian poet Adonis. The experts agree on one thing: the prize seeks a solid body of work, a distinctive style, or an avant-garde approach , not necessarily a bestseller.
What might happen on October 8th
On October 8th, at 13:00 PM Spanish peninsular time, the Swedish Academy will reveal its Nobel laureate. Can Xue, Murakami, Anne Carson, Cristina Rivera Garza, and Enrique Vila-Matas are among the most frequently mentioned names, but Amitav Ghosh, César Aira, Mircea Cărtărescu, Margaret Atwood, and Thomas Pynchon are also in the running. The only certainty is that there are no certainties: the deliberations are secret, the official list is not published, and the predictions can change at any moment. Spanish has been waiting for a new Nobel Prize since 2010 , and Spain since 1989. If Stockholm decides to look to the Spanish language once again, Vila-Matas and Rivera Garza would be the most talked-about names. If it opts for other traditions, the predictions will be wrong once again. Literature, meanwhile, continues to play its own game.